¿Por qué no somos Australia?

Nos llega un mail de Wall St.:

More evidence of an (South-East) Asian rebound:

1. For many months, we have been focused on how parts of Asia have been at the leading edge of a muted global rebound. Most of the time, we have been focused on China, but today it is worth highlighting Australia, where GDP surprisingly rose 1.6%q/q, saar, in Q1, led by government spending, and solid growth in consumer spending (2.5%q/q, saar). Any economy posting positive growth in Q1 is impressive (remember that Japan, Germany and the U.S. were down 15.2%, 14.4% and 5.7%q/q, saar, respectively in Q1). For Australia, the main supports for this development seem to be: a) well-timed fiscal support; and b) a better-managed underlying domestic economy (and banking system) that has given the country more resilience. Recent Chinese expansion has helped via the commodity market, although this would have come too recently to rescue Q1. Success is, of course, all relative: in absolute terms, the economy is hardly doing well (output was up just 0.4%oya in Q1), and unemployment is rising. But relative success is notable. Let's hope that this does not carry over to the upcoming Ashes (cricket) matches vs England.

2. Relative success is evident also in the appreciation of AUD vs USD. From a recent low on March 9th, AUD has appreciated by 29% vs USD. This rebound is common to commodity currencies, although has been conditioned by domestic performance, with AUD doing best. Canada's GDP contracted by 5.4%q/q, saar, in Q1, but CAD has risen by 20% versus USD since March 9th (also the recent low), while CLP has risen 8.4% (Chile's IP has been weak through April).

Rollo igual no pierde las esperanzas, y menos ahora que se hizo kirchnerista...

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